本文由人工翻译，AI 修正。

原文链接：https://paulgraham.com/writes.html

I’m usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won’t be many people who can write.

我通常不轻易对技术发展做出预测，但这次我确信：在未来几十年内，能够写作的人将会越来越少。

One of the strangest things you learn if you’re a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they’re worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren’t; writers know how many people need help writing.

作为作家，你会惊讶地发现，很多人在写作上遇到了困难。医生知道有多少人担心自己的痣；电脑高手知道有多少人不懂设置电脑；而作家则知道有多少人需要写作上的帮助。

The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it’s fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.

写作之所以困难，是因为它本质上是一项需要清晰思考的活动，而清晰思考本身就是一项挑战。

And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.

尽管如此，写作在许多职业中都是必不可少的，尤其是那些声望越高的工作，往往写作的需求就越旺盛。

These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they’re not even halfway decent at writing.

这种对写作的普遍要求与写作本身的难度之间的矛盾，造成了巨大的压力。这就是为什么一些知名教授会陷入剽窃的丑闻。这些案例中最让我震惊的是，他们剽窃的内容往往是一些陈词滥调，任何稍微擅长写作的人都能够轻易写出。这表明他们甚至不是稍微擅长写作的人。

Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn’t buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.

直到不久前，这种由对立力量产生的压力还没有一个方便的释放途径。你可以像约翰·肯尼迪那样找人代写，或者像马丁·路德·金那样剽窃，但如果你没有能力购买或窃取文字，你就必须自己写。因此，几乎所有需要写作的人都必须学会如何写作。

Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.

但现在不同了。AI 的出现彻底改变了这一切。无论是在学校还是在职场，几乎所有的写作压力都消失了，你可以借助 AI 来完成这项工作。

The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can’t write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can’t write, there will just be good writers and people who can’t write.

这将导致一个分为能写和不能写两个极端的世界。仍然会有一些人能够写作，我们中总有一些人喜欢写作。但那些介于擅长写作和完全不会写作之间的人将会消失。不再有优秀作家、普通作家和不会写作的人，只有优秀作家和不会写作的人。

Is that so bad? Isn’t it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren’t many blacksmiths left, and it doesn’t seem to be a problem.

这听起来可能没那么糟糕？毕竟，当技术使某些技能变得过时时，这些技能的消失是很常见的，比如铁匠的数量已经大大减少，但这似乎并没有造成什么问题。

Yes, it’s bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there’s a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can’t make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:

然而，这确实很糟糕。正如我之前提到的，写作本身就是思考。实际上，有些思考只能通过写作来完成。这一点，莱斯利·兰波特已经阐述得很清楚了：

If you’re thinking without writing, you only think you’re thinking.

如果你思考时不写作，你只是在自欺欺人地思考。

So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.

因此，一个分为能写和不能写的世界比听起来更危险。它将是一个会思考和不会思考的世界。我知道我想要站在哪一边，我敢打赌你也是。

This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people’s jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.

这种情况并非前所未有。在前工业时代，大多数人的工作使他们变得强壮。现在，如果你想变得强壮，你必须专门去锻炼。所以，仍然有强壮的人，但只有那些选择变得强壮的人。

It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.

写作也将是如此。仍然会有聪明的人，但只有那些选择变得聪明的人。